Nate Silver, political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight released his highly anticipated forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election. According to Silver’s predictions, the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is currently favored to defeat President Joe Biden in a rematch of their 2020 showdown.
“When the model was finally done on Sunday night, it turned out that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than I’d anticipated at Manifest — although Biden retains highly viable paths to victory,” Silver said.
Silver detailed the complexities of creating such a model, emphasizing the numerous choices required in statistical modeling. He explained that even seemingly straightforward decisions, like calculating a polling average, involve many parameters, including which polls to include and how to weigh them.
